Friday, May 15, 2015

Consumer Reports on bicycle helmets

In the June, 2015 issue of their magazine, Consumer Reports (CR) tries to convince me to wear a bicycle helmet. They do not succeed. Nor should they. While it may be true that we should all be wearing helmets, nobody should be persuaded by CR's statistical arguments, which are so silly as to be laughable.

It's actually a pretty big fail on CR's part. Because, I'm sure, helmets *do* save lives, and it should be pretty easy to come up with data that illustrate that competently. Instead ... well, it's almost like they don't take the question seriously enough to care about what the numbers actually mean. 

(The article isn't online, but here's a web page from their site that's similar but less ardent .)

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Here's CR's first argument:


"... the answer is a resounding yes, you *should* wear a helmet. Here's why: 87 percent of the bicyclists killed in accidents over the past two decades were not wearing helmets."


Well, that's not enough to prove anything at all. From that factoid alone, there is really no way to tell whether or not helmets are good or bad. 

If CR doesn't see why, I bet they would if I changed the subject on them:


"... the answer is a resounding yes, you *should* drive drunk. Here's why: 87 percent of the drivers killed in accidents over the past two decades were stone cold sober."


That would make it obvious, right?

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If the same argument that proves you should wear a helmet also proves you should drive drunk, the argument must be flawed. What's wrong with it? 

It doesn't work without the base rate. 

In order to see if "87 percent" is high or low, you need something to compare it to. If fewer than 87 percent of cyclists go helmetless, then, yes, they're overrepresented in deaths, and you can infer that helmets are a good thing. But if *more* than 87 percent go without a helmet, that might be evidence that helmets are actually dangerous.

To make the drinking-and-driving argument work, you have to show that fewer than 87 percent of drivers are drunk. 

Neither of those is that hard. But you still have to do it!

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Why would CR not notice that their argument was wrong in the helmet case, but notice immediately in the drunk-driving case? There are two possibilities:

1. Confirmation bias. The first example fits in with their pre-existing belief that helmets are good; the second example contradicts their pre-existing belief that drunk driving is bad.

2. Gut statistical savvy. The CR writers do feel, intuitively, that base rates matter, and "fill in the blanks" with their common sense understanding that more than 13 percent of cyclists wear helmets, and that more than 13 percent of drivers are sober.

As you can imagine, I think it's almost all number 1. I'm skeptical of number 2. 

In fact, there are many times that the base rates could easily go the "wrong" way, and people don't notice. One of my favorite examples, which I mentioned a few years ago, goes something like this:


"... the answer is a resounding yes, you *should* drive the speed limit. Here's why: 60 percent of fatal accidents over the past two decades involved at least one speeder."


As I see it, this argument actually may support speeding! Suppose half of all drivers speed. Then, there's a 75 percent chance of finding at least one speeder out of two cars. If those 75 percent of cases comprise only 60 percent of the accidents ... then, speeding must be safer than not speeding!

And, of course, there's this classic Dilbert cartoon.

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It wouldn't have been hard for CR to fix the argument. They could have just added the base rate:


"... the answer is a resounding yes, you *should* wear a helmet. Here's why: 87 percent of the bicyclists killed in accidents over the past two decades were not wearing helmets, as compared to only 60 percent of cyclists overall."


It does sound less scary than the other version, but at least it means something.

(I made up the "60 percent" number, but anything significantly less than 87 percent would work. I don't know what the true number is; but, since we're talking about the average of the last 20 years, my guess would be that 60 to 70 percent would be about right.)

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Even if CR had provided a proper statistical argument that riding with a helmet is safer than riding without ... it still wouldn't be enough justify their "resounding yes". Because, I doubt that anyone would say,


"... the answer is a resounding yes, you *should* avoid riding a bike. Here's why: 87 percent of commuters killed in accidents over the past two decades were cycling instead of walking -- as compared to only 60 percent of commuters overall."


That would indeed be evidence that biking is riskier than walking -- but I think we'd all agree that it's silly to argue that it's not worth the risk at all. You have to weigh the risks against the benefits.

On that note, here's a second statistical argument CR makes, which is just as irrelevant as the first one:


"... wearing a helmet during sports reduces the risk of traumatic brain injury by almost 70 percent."


(Never mind the article chooses to lump all sports together; we'll just assume the 70 percent is true for all sports equally.)

So, should that 70 percent statistic alone convince you to wear a helmet? No, of course not. 

Last month -- and this actually happened -- my friend's mother suffered a concussion in the lobby of her apartment building. She was looking sideways towards the mail room, and collided with another resident who didn't see her because he was carrying his three-year-old daughter. My friend's Mom lost her balance, hit her head on an open door, blacked out, and spent the day in hospital.

If she had been wearing a helmet, she'd almost certainly have been fine. In fact, it's probably just as true that


"... wearing a helmet when walking around in public reduces the risk of traumatic brain injury by almost 70 percent."


Does that convince you to wear a helmet every second of your day? Of course not.

The relevant statistic isn't the percentage of injuries prevented. It's how big the benefit is as compared to the cost and inconvenience.

The "70 percent" figure doesn't speak to that at all. 

If I were to find the CR writers, and ask them why they don't wear their helmets while walking on the street, they'll look at me like I'm some kind of idiot -- but if they chose to answer the question, they'd say that it's because walking, unlike cycling, doesn't carry a very high risk of head injury.

And that's the point. Even if a helmet reduced the risk of traumatic brain injury by 80 percent, or 90 percent, or even 100 percent ... we still wouldn't wear one to the mailroom. 

I choose not to wear a helmet for exactly the same reason that you choose not to wear a helmet when walking. That's why the "70 percent" figure, on its own, is almost completely irrelevant. 

Everything I've seen on the web convinces me that the risk is low enough that I'm willing to tolerate it. I'd be happy to be corrected by CR -- but they're not interested in that line of argument. 

I bet that's because the statistics don't sound that ominous. Here's a site that says there's around one cycling death per 10,000,000 miles. If it's four times as high without a helmet -- one death per 2,500,000 miles -- that still doesn't sound that scary. 

That latter figure is about 40 times as high as driving. If I ride 1,000 miles per year without a helmet, the excess danger is equivalent to driving 30,000 miles. I'm willing to accept that level of risk. (Especially because, for me, the risk is lower still because I ride mostly on bike paths, rather than streets, and and most cycling deaths result from collisions with cars.)

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You can still argue that three extra deaths per ten million miles is a significant amount of risk, enough to create a moral or legal requirement for helmets. But, do you really want to go there? Because, if your criterion is magnitude or risk ... well, cycling shouldn't be at the top of your list of concerns. 

In the year 2000, according to this website, 412 Americans died after falling off a ladder or scaffolding.

Now, many of those deaths are probably job-related, workers who spend a significant portion of their days on ladders. Suppose that covers 90 percent of the fatalities, so only 10 percent of those deaths were do-it-yourselfers working on their own houses. That's 41 ladder deaths.

People spend a lot more time on bicycles than ladders ... I'd guess, probably by a factor of at least 1000. So 41 ladder deaths is the equivalent of 41,000 cycling deaths. 

But ... there were only 740 deaths from cycling. That makes it around fifty-five times as dangerous to climb a ladder than ride a bicycle.

And that's just the ladders -- it doesn't include deaths from falling after you've made it onto the roof!

If CR were to acknowledging that risk level is important, they'd have to call for helmets for others at high-risk, like homeowners cleaning their gutters, and elderly people with walkers, and people limping with casts, and everyone taking a shower.

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Finally, CR gives one last statistic on the promo page:


"Cycling sends more people to the ER for head injuries than any other sport -- twice as many as football, 3 1/2 times as many as soccer."


Well, so what? Isn't that just because there's a lot more cycling going on than football and soccer? 

This document (.pdf) says that in the US in 2014, there were six football fatalities. They all happened in competition, even though there are many more practices than games. All six deaths happened among the 1,200,000 players in high-school level football or beyond -- there were no deaths in youth leagues.

Call it a million players, ten games a year, on the field for 30 minutes of competition per game. Let's double that to include kids' leagues, and double it again to include practices -- both of which didn't have any deaths, but still may have had head injuries. 

That works out to 20 million hours of football.

In the USA, cyclists travel between 6 billion and 21 billion miles per year. Let's be conservative and take the low value. At an average speed of, say, 10 mph, that's 600 million hours of cycling.

So, people cycle 30 times as much as they play football. But, according to CR, they have twice the head injury rate. That means cycling is only 7 percent as dangerous as football.

That just confirms what already seemed obvious, that cycling is pretty safe compared to football. Did CR misunderstand the statistics so badly that they convinced themselves otherwise? 



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(My previous posts on bicycle helmets are here:  one two three four)





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24 Comments:

At Friday, May 15, 2015 12:48:00 PM, Blogger Phil Birnbaum said...

OK, one more thing:

The article starts off by ridiculing some of the arguments against helmet laws:

"Do you need a bike helmet? You wouldn't think that would still be a controversial question, but it is. The anti-helmet contingent offers arguments such as: "Forcing people to wear helmets makes cycling seem dangerous." "It's inconvenient." "It discourages exercise." ..."

Then, they rate 15 models of adult bicycle helmet, based on their laboratory tests. One of the helmets, the "Bern Macon EPS w/Visor Summer," has a multisport design. For that one, they write,

"If you like to skateboard and ride a bike and don't want to buy two helmets, this is a good option ..."

Except that: the Bern got the lowest safety rating of the fifteen helmets in their test. It got only a "good" rating in impact absorption -- every other helmet was "very good" or "excellent."

Apparently, to CR, "inconvenience" is not an acceptable reason to choose to ride without a helmet -- but it's a good excuse for choosing to use a mediocre one.

 
At Friday, May 15, 2015 4:27:00 PM, Blogger James said...

I love your CR posts.

My guess is the main reason you see lazy evidence like 87% of cyclist deaths are helmetless is because that's an easy statistic to find and cite. By comparison, figuring out the percentage of miles ridden with and without helmets would take a lot of work, and who has time for that?

 
At Tuesday, May 26, 2015 9:42:00 AM, Anonymous Mike said...

Perhaps the popularity of helmets and helmet laws is not due to the irrationality of the bicyclists, but the rationality of the safety advocates and legislators.

If I'm a safety advocate... I might know that a bicycle helmet law will only save 1/10th of the lives of a "no riding at night" law, but if I think it has more than 10x the chance of becoming a law, I'd be making a wise decision to spend my time pursuing a helmet law rather than a nighttime law.

Subjective morality could certainly be a source of inertia in these areas, as you argue in a prior post you link to, but I wonder if we can also attribute the current state of things to rationality on the part of some people.

 
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Safety...this means a lot for every bicyclist

 
At Saturday, May 30, 2015 12:57:00 AM, Blogger Peace in Pieces said...

It would be fatal for everyone on the road if 87 percent drivers are drunk. One must never drink and drive but if you are facing DUI charges, the goal of Los Angeles DUI attorney must be to avoid court proceedings which will waste much of your time and you will be declared not guilty after arraignment. But it’s quite important to choose a good lawyer.

 
At Monday, June 08, 2015 3:30:00 PM, Anonymous Barak said...

You've convinced me to wear a helmet every time I climb a ladder. Seems like a good idea.

 
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Even if a helmet reduced the risk of traumatic brain injury by 80 percent, or 90 percent, or even 100 percent ... people still wouldn't wear one to the mailroom.

 
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At Monday, June 20, 2016 12:21:00 PM, Anonymous Labrador said...

Stopped reading after author made that drunk analogue. Difference between driving drunk and driving helmetless is in the object and subject of harm. Driving druk, you most likely will harm someone else and maybe yourself if it is a car crash. While on a bycicle that is more of personal safety issue, as most of bicycle crashes do not involve other people. Better analogue wuold be not about being drunk when driving, but driving without the airpillows or unfastened.

 

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