Flawed study on stolen base risk analysis
Here’s a working paper on stolen base decision making. It’s badly flawed mainly because it fails to consider all the costs of a CS – specifically, it forgot to note that a caught stealing significantly reduces the chance of having a big inning.
I won’t review it here, because I'd just be repeating others' analysis at "The Sports Economist" and "The Book" (scroll down to October 14).
Thanks to Sabernomics for the original pointer.