"Water is wet," physicists estimate
In the game show “Deal or No Deal,” there are 26 cases. One of them contains the million dollar grand prize. The contestant gets one guess as to which one it is.
1 grand prize. Out of 26 cases. What are the odds?
Apparently, TV reporter Alex Strachan doesn’t know. He writes,
“… the program’s producers estimate the player’s chances of winning the top cash prize as one-in-26.”
Not only does Strachan not know the answer, but he thinks it needs to be estimated. And he even feels the need to avoid endorsing the answer by explicitly attributing it to a third party!
No wonder reporters have so much trouble with sabermetrics ...
(“Back with a bang,” Ottawa Citizen, September 16, 2006, page K3. Article not available online as far as I could tell.)