A new 2007-08 streakiness study
If you're sick of clutch hitting studies, you're probably *really* sick of streakiness studies. But here's a new one from "Eric Karros" of "Sons of Steve Garvey."
He found that after winning one or two consecutive games, teams were slightly more likely to win the next. But after winning three, four, or five consecutive games, they won the subsequent game far less often than you'd expect from their record.
Bottom line: like many other previous studies, no evidence of "momentum" or a "hot hand."
Some of this might be the pitching rotation: teams that win four in a row are likely to have done it with their top four starters, and their fifth starter is a worse pitcher, so more likely to lose. But that doesn't explain the five-in-a-row effect.
Hat tip: Carl Bialik
Labels: baseball, hot hand, streakiness
posted by Phil Birnbaum @ 7/11/2008 11:24:00 PM
7 comments
7 Comments:
Similar findings apply for NHL hockey:
http://www.thephysicsofhockey.com/documents/streaks.pdf
On the above link, the end of the URL may be cut off. There should be a ".pdf" at the end, coming after "streaks".
What may also be causing the decline below .500 after a series of wins may be home game wins followed by road losses. Home teams have had over the year an approximately .540 to .460 win percentage advantage over road teams. Winning streaks will thus tend to happen more often at home, but as a series of home game wins goes on, the likelihood that the next game for the streaking team will be a road game increases -- home stands only last so long. I think these factors could be expected to cause a perceptible increase in the likelihood of a loss after a win or series of wins if one uses a large enough sample.
Birtelcom: Yup, that makes sense.
I agree, that there are many biases here that would cause the effect, and not the "preceding streak" being the leading cause.
Baseball is played in 3-game or 4-game sets, and so, after 3 straight wins, it's possible that the 4th game is played against a different opponent. 4-game streaks must happen fairly infrequently that it wouldn't pass the stat sig test after just 2 years.
The home/road is an effect, as is the pitchers and closers. That is, if you win 3 straight games, you may have used your closer twice and so is not available.
Really, there is a host of such biases to account for.
Hi Phil et al. This is "Eric Karros" from Sons of Steve Garvey. Thank you for reading our blog and my post.
I just want to say that I pretty much agree with Carl Bialik, birtelcom, and tangotiger: that 5th starters, starting a road trip, and facing a different opponent are all valid reasons not directly related to either luck or the quality of the team as to why a winning streak could end. The structure of the analysis allows for too much one-sided systematic error is retained. And even though the exact opposite phenomenon also occur (top of rotations are stronger, opposing teams have weak 5th starters, teams come home after road trips or start a new series against a crappy team), these impacts won't be captured as strongly given the way the analysis is set up.
I still think winning streaks are waaaay overrated though. You'll have to trust me on this one.
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,A片,A片,A片,A片,A片,A片,情趣用品,A片,情趣用品,A片,情趣用品,a片,情趣用品
A片,A片,AV女優,色情,成人,做愛,情色,AIO,視訊聊天室,SEX,聊天室,自拍,AV,情色,成人,情色,aio,sex,成人,情色
免費A片,美女視訊,情色交友,免費AV,色情網站,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人影片,成人網站,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,情色網,日本A片,免費A片下載,性愛
色情A片,A片下載,色情遊戲,色情影片,色情聊天室,情色電影,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊聊天室,一葉情貼圖片區,情色視訊,免費成人影片,視訊交友,視訊聊天,言情小說,愛情小說,AV片,A漫,avdvd,情色論壇,視訊美女,AV成人網,情色文學,成人交友,成人電影,成人貼圖,成人小說,成人文章,成人圖片區,成人遊戲,愛情公寓,情色貼圖,成人論壇
av女優,av,av片,aio交友愛情館,ut聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,色情聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,080聊天室,視訊聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,上班族聊天室,成人聊天室,中部人聊天室,一夜情聊天室,情色聊天室,情色視訊
視訊聊天室,聊天室,視訊,,情色視訊,視訊交友,視訊交友90739,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,視訊聊天,UT聊天室,聊天室,美女視訊,視訊交友網,豆豆聊天室,A片,尋夢園聊天室,色情聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,成人聊天室,中部人聊天室,一夜情聊天室,情色聊天室,080中部人聊天室,080聊天室,美女交友,辣妹視訊
Post a Comment
<< Home