AL/NL payroll gap now even bigger
A couple of months ago, I posted about the AL being superior to the NL. One of the factors was the salary gap – in 2006, the average American League team spent $84 million on payroll, while the National League teams spent only $72 million.
Today, in the New York Times "Keeping Score" column, Dan Rosenheck notes that the difference in payrolls has increased. The NL moved only slightly, to $74MM, but the American League jumped substantially, to $93MM.
The gap is now almost $20 million. That's about four wins per team per season. (Or maybe it's five. But because of interleague play, let's call it four.) So a National League team that goes 83-79 is probably no better than an American League team going 79-83.
By the log5 method, AL teams should play .524 ball against NL teams this year. That should give the AL a 132-120 record.
Last year, the AL was 154-98. I still think that was just a fluke.
Hat tip: The Griddle