2007 Yankees to win 110 games, says math prof's simulation
According to math professor Bruce Bukiet, the Yankees will win 110 games this year.
Bukiet apparently uses a simulation to project the outcomes of games, and ran it on the 2007 season.
He also suggests a plan to reinvent the "win probability" approach:
Were the model to be commercialized, it could be updated on a play-by-play basis, which fans could monitor to see how every play changes the outcome of a game. “I think some fans would think that’s cool,” Bukiet said.It's not possible to evaluate Bukiet's system from the article, but I don't think there's been any team in baseball history who would have been *expected* to win 110 games. The very few teams to win that many games mostly did so by luck. For what it's worth, here's my presentation where I found the best teams since 1961 only had 102-game talent (the 1969 Orioles and the 1998 Braves).
Also, TradeSports has the Yankees with only a 39-40% chance to win as many as 98 games, never mind 110.
(Thanks to John Matthew for the pointer.)