Monday, March 12, 2007

Another "value added" paper

The "Value Added" approach for baseball – where a player is credited with the increase in run expectation or win probability arising from his contribution – seems to keep getting independently reinvented. (For instance, see the bottom of page 3 here.)

Here's the latest, from the Retrosheet website, by Kyle Y. Lin and Ken K. Lin. The authors do not cite any non-academic references. They use wins as their measure instead of runs. And they include a nice explanation of the algorithm for recursively calculating theoretical (Markov) win probabilities from Retrosheet data.


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3 Comments:

At Tuesday, March 13, 2007 7:43:00 AM, Blogger Dave said...

Aargh. That Retrosheet paper is extremely frustrating. That they would write a paper like that and not acknowledge WPA on Fangraphs, or the tremendous work that Tango has put into the subject, oy. They should be ashamed.

 
At Tuesday, March 13, 2007 12:45:00 PM, Blogger Tangotiger said...

I posted a comment on their site:
http://www.whoismvp.com/

 
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