Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Luck in chess matches

While web surfing, I stumbled over a two-part series on luck in chess, by Matthew S. Wilson.  It doesn't talk about the "micro" view of where the luck comes from (as I did), and it doesn't much talk about the balance of luck vs. skill.  It just implicitly acknowledges that, once you account for player skill, the result of a game is like a coin flip (where the probability of a head depends on how much better one player is than the other).    

Wilson analyzes how that applies to a series of games, why it's hard to get statistical significance from a single match.  Also, he talks about how long a match would have to be in order to achieve a reasonable level of competitive balance.

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