Luck in chess matches
While web surfing, I stumbled over a two-part series on luck in chess, by Matthew S. Wilson. It doesn't talk about the "micro" view of where the luck comes from (as I did), and it doesn't much talk about the balance of luck vs. skill. It just implicitly acknowledges that, once you account for player skill, the result of a game is like a coin flip (where the probability of a head depends on how much better one player is than the other).
Wilson analyzes how that applies to a series of games, why it's hard to get statistical significance from a single match. Also, he talks about how long a match would have to be in order to achieve a reasonable level of competitive balance.