"Pinburgh": pinball sabermetrics

On the weekend of March 18, I competed in the huge (and phenomenally well-run) "Pinburgh" match-play pinball tournament in Pittsburgh.

I finished roughly in the middle of the field of 173 competitors, and, I wondered, if I'm really average, what would my chances be of winning the whole thing next year just by luck?

So I wasted a day or so and wrote a simulation.

It turns out that I'm probably a 2000:1 longshot, unless I get better, or unless I'm *already* better and don't realize it. Still, on average, I should win back half my entry fee.

This is probably of no interest to more than a handful of people in the entire world, but I wrote up a whole bunch of results anyway. They're here.