Thursday, October 07, 2010

Do batters really hit .463 when gunning for a .300 average? Part III

Last post, I forgot the most important findings. Here they are now.

I searched for all PAs from 1975-2008 in the last two games of the season, where the player was hitting less than .300, but, if he got a hit that PA, he'd be at .300 or over. In those plate appearances, the players hit .300.

Then, I looked for players who were at .300 or above, but, if they made an out that PA, they would drop below .300. In those plate appearances, the players hit .297.

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At Saturday, October 16, 2010 10:55:00 PM, Blogger Joakim StÃ¥lebrink said...

Hi Phil, I posted this in the commentary to the Lemon post but since it was published a while ago I figured you might have missed it.

Assuming there is a lemon effect, is the preferable strategy to trade away players over draft picks since there is an information asymmetry in the former but not in the latter? Or would the market even this out by revising the value of the pick downward because of lower expectations for the given player?

At Saturday, October 16, 2010 10:58:00 PM, Blogger Phil Birnbaum said...

Hi, Joakim,

An economist would probably be able to answer the question for sure, but my guess is that the market would even it out. My understanding is that the theory says only that the quality of traded players will be low, but does not say that the purchasers will be unaware of that fact.


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