Academic article on predicting hitting performance
A new academic article called "Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Hitting Performance in Baseball" attempts to beat existing prediction methods -- PECOTA, Marcel, et al -- using a more complicated model and Bayesian techniques.
It's the new issue of the academic journal "Bayesian Analysis".
The article is accompanied by three reviews; I'm the co-author of one of them, with Jim Albert. (Disclosure: we discussed the article by e-mail, but Jim wrote most of it, except for a few paragraphs that I provided in Section 6.)
There's also an article where the authors, Shane T. Jensen, Blakeley B. McShane, and Abraham J. Wyner, respond to the reviews.
All five articles are available at the above link, near the top.