The clutch hitter bet -- rules
This is a followup to my offer to bet that you can't pick clutch hitters in 2008, in my previous post. Now that people are interested, I suppose I should lay out the rules, to avoid disputes. Here they are:
1. I have improved the odds to 2:3. You now have to lay only $15 to win $10, for instance.
2. Please accept the bet HERE, not at any other site that may have linked here (eg. BTF, SOSH, etc.) I don't always read all those sites. To accept the bet, post a comment here, or e-mail me (a link to my e-mail is at my full name dot com).
a. The player or players in your "clutch" group;
b. The player or players in your "choke" group;
c. The amount of money you are laying;
d. Your definition of a clutch situation;
e. The charity you are playing for, or whether you want the winnings yourself.
f. Who you are, if I don't know you, so I can find you if you lose. (You can send this by e-mail.)
I would recommend that your definition of clutch be something easy to calculate, maybe even something that ESPN or someone calculates for you. If not, you are responsible for the calculations.
I will confirm that I am accepting your bet, and then we're on!
3. Despite some objections, the metric will be (batting average in clutch – batting average in non-clutch). Why? Because the studies I have seen use batting average. I suspect that the evidence is just as strong against clutch talent using other statistics, but I'm going to play it safe anyway. Maybe I'll switch next year.
4. I won't accept attempts to game the system. For instance, suppose there's a runner on first being held on. Can lefties hit singles through the hole more easily than righties? If you choose that as your situation, and made it lefties vs. righties, I won't take your bet, because you're not really measuring clutch, you're measuring a certain platoon effect.On a related note, no pitchers allowed unless accompanied in your "clutch" or "non-clutch" group by at least one real hitter.
And if you want to bet way too much money for me, I will politely decline.
5. For multiple players, batting averages should be computed by adding all H and dividing by all AB (not by averaging the individual unweighted batting averages). Regular season only, no playoffs.
6. The minimum AB for the calculation is 1. If either of your groups goes 0-for-0 in clutch or non-clutch, the bet is cancelled.
7. I may not have thought of everything, so I retain the right to refuse any bet for any reasons I choose. Once the season starts, of course, I can't cancel any bets I've accepted. In the unlikely case of dispute at the end of the year, we can try to find someone neutral to arbitrate. (Honestly, if it's just $10 or something, I'd probably just pay you and complain about it.)
8. All bets must eventually be public (except for your real name or e-mail address). I will eventually set up a web page with all the bets listed, as I accept them.
9. Any legal trouble on non-charity bets will convert them to charity bets. I don't want to go to jail or anything.
10. For charity bets, I get to offset my losing bets with my winning bets. That is, suppose I win 50 bets at $15, and lose 100 bets at $10. That's $750 in winnings, and $1000 in losses. The 50 losing bettors send $15 each to charity on behalf of 75 of the winners, and I send the remaining $250.
Otherwise, I couldn't afford to do this, since I'm pretty sure that I will lose half the bets.
Another way of putting it: I am the casino. I get to pay my losing bets out of the money made from winning bets. If there is any leftover, it's profit, and 100% of my profit goes to charity. If there is not enough to pay the winning bets out of the losing bets, I take the loss (by making donations to charity).
11. After the season, I'll go through all the bets and figure out who has to send money where. Losers are responsible for sending the cheque to the charity assigned.
99. I may add or change rules on this page as I think of them. I will always let you know what the changes are.
(Again, here is my previous post which describes what you are betting on.)
(Added points 10 and 11 on January 19 to clarify that I get to pay the winners out of the losers' money. Also, the charity can now be a US charity.)