Saturday, July 21, 2007

The NBA referee scandal -- any evidence yet?

An NBA referee is accused of manipulating games to come out on a certain side of the point spread. If that's true, it shouldn’t be too difficult to look at that referee's games and come up with the evidence. As Steven Levitt points out, maybe we should expect to be hearing from Justin Wolfers before long.

A thought: if this were baseball instead of basketball, would we have expected the evidence to have come out already? There are lots more sabermetricians in baseball than in basketball, and the existence of Retrosheet (which provides umpire data) would take care of the data-gathering step.

Regardless, I'd give pretty good odds that the amateur APBRmetricians will beat the academics to the punch on this one.

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5 Comments:

At Sunday, July 22, 2007 11:25:00 PM, Blogger Rich said...

I came across this.

 
At Monday, July 23, 2007 2:21:00 PM, Blogger doc said...

I bet you're right that the first analyses will be by non-academic analysts. But that's partly because the rules of the game are different for academics. We have to do peer review before we actually believe our own results.

 
At Wednesday, July 25, 2007 8:05:00 AM, Anonymous Guy said...

Today's WaPo has article on statistics that might shed light on what the ref did: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/24/AR2007072402259.html.

 
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