Monday, May 21, 2007

La Russa on "scoring in three innings"

Recently, the Cardinals had a spell in which all their runs were coming in a single inning.

Manager Tony La Russa decided that's not good:


"… We want to (score) in three innings. That's the goal. But the bigger goal is to win the game."
A follow-up article reported:


La Russa said back in Oakland Jim Lefebvre said a team’s chances of winning dramatically increase when it adds a third inning of scoring in any game. They started keeping track of such things and found the three-inning rule true.

The article shows that teams scoring in only two innings have a winning percentage of .417, but if they score in three innings, they jump to .623. If you score in three *or more* innings, you'll be .711.

But that's irrelevant. Obviously, only runs are important. If your opponents score more runs than you, you lose. Even if they scored them all in one inning, you still lose. And it's not like "scoring in at least three innings" is a skill you can teach your team indpendent of scoring runs in general. So what's the point?

In the game La Russa complained about, his team scored four runs in the seventh and won 4-1. Someone should show him page 173 of the 1986 Bill James Baseball Abstract, where James found that if you score four or more runs in a game, you'll be .747. (It's probably lower now in this high-offense era, but the point still holds.)

In any case, I don't think this is anything that La Russa can screw up the team with ... there are few reasonable managerial strategies that increase the number of scoring innings while decreasing the number of runs. And maybe La Russa didn't really mean what it sounds like he meant; perhaps he was just making conversation for the reporter.

But still ...

(Hat Tip: Bob Timmermann)


Labels:

5 Comments:

At Monday, May 21, 2007 4:51:00 PM, Blogger John said...

I think the point is that run scoring follows a set distribution (Weibull/ tango/ whatever ... it doesn't really matter).

I haven't done the math but I strongly suspect that the probability of scoring, say 2 runs, 2 runs and 3 runs in any 3 of 9 innings of ball is higher than scoring 7 in a 1 of 9.

Nothing a bit of permutations/ combinations analysis wouldn't fix

Beamer

 
At Monday, May 21, 2007 5:35:00 PM, Blogger Tangotiger said...

I remember Howard Stern was reading analysis from these radio doctors as to how to usurp his numbers. The basic summary was: "Be funnier and wittier than Howard". Which is akin to saying "hit more HR and draw more walks than Pujols".

So, Phil's basic point stands: this is not a skill that you turn on/off (scoring spread over three innings). The only thing the batter/pitcher controls is the actual batter/pitcher matchup. His approach, when/where/how hard to swing.

 
At Monday, May 21, 2007 6:05:00 PM, Blogger John said...

Agreed completely ... I think La Russa was being a bit stupid but was also subtly clever (without knowing it)

 
At Monday, May 21, 2007 7:31:00 PM, Blogger Phil Birnbaum said...

Games where you score (say) 3 runs in one inning have a good chance of being games where you got only a few hits, but bunched them all together. Games where you score the same 3 runs, but over 3 innings, have a better chance of being games where you had more baserunners.

So score-in-one-inning games have "worse" offense by batting line than score-in-three-inning games. Managers might therefore feel better about the latter than the former, which might contribute to a bias in their favor.z

Just a thought.

 
At Monday, April 20, 2009 4:00:00 AM, Blogger cvxv said...

看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,美髮儀器,美髮,儀器,髮型,EMBA,MBA,學位,EMBA,專業認證,認證課程,博士學位,DBA,PHD,在職進修,碩士學位,推廣教育,DBA,進修課程,碩士學位,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,課程介紹,學分班,文憑,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,日式料理, 台北居酒屋,日本料理,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,台北結婚,場地,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,造型系列,學位,SEO,婚宴,捷運,學區,美髮,儀器,髮型,看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,房子,捷運,學區,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,學位,碩士學位,進修,在職進修, 課程,教育,學位,證照,mba,文憑,學分班,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,場地,結婚,場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,場地,居酒屋,燒烤,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,小套房,小套房,進修,在職進修,留學,證照,MBA,EMBA,留學,MBA,EMBA,留學,進修,在職進修,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,PMP,在職專班,研究所在職專班,碩士在職專班,PMP,證照,在職專班,研究所在職專班,碩士在職專班,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,EMBA,MBA,PMP,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,EMBA,MBA,PMP,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,EMBA,MBA,PMP,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,婚宴,婚宴,婚宴,婚宴,漢高資訊,漢高資訊,比利時,比利時聯合商學院,宜蘭民宿,台東民宿,澎湖民宿,墾丁民宿,花蓮民宿,SEO,找工作,汽車旅館,阿里山,日月潭,阿里山民宿,東森購物,momo購物台,pc home購物,購物漢高資訊,漢高資訊,在職進修,漢高資訊,在職進修,住宿,住宿,整形,造型,室內設計,室內設計,漢高資訊,在職進修,漢高資訊,在職進修,住宿,美容,室內設計,在職進修,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,住宿,住宿,整形,整形,室內設計,室內設計,比利時聯合商學院,在職進修,比利時聯合商學院,在職進修,漢高資訊,找工作,找工作,找工作,找工作,找工作,蔡依林,林志玲

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home