Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Once in 175 Years

On July 15, there were no saves recorded in a full slate of 15 games. Baseball Toaster’s Mike Carmanati calculates the odds of that happening as about 1 in 26,000.

With a full slate of games happening, say, 150 times a year, this should be expected to happen about once in 175 years.

Yes, it did happen in 1978. But that was when there were only 13 games a day, not 15, and back when saves only happened in 40% of wins (rather than today’s 49%). Mike doesn’t give the odds for 1978, but for 1979, there was a 1 in 778 chance of a saveless 13-game day.


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